And, of course, all this talk about “resistance” can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. “There’s this psychological game where everyone in the market knows that everyone else knows there’s a resistance level and responds to that,” says Hogrefe.
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Does Technical Analysis Work?
While it’s not hard to spot the basic patterns of resistance in Bitcoin’s past rallies, so far, the cryptocurrency has always eventually pushed higher. To chart watchers, when an investment closes above resistance levels for two sessions or more, it’s known as a “breakout,” and the investment is thought to gather more momentum.
Despite the uncertainty, Hogrefe’s partners at Hoovest Financial have seen the chart-based trading algorithm he helped design perform well. In the last 12 months, the algorithm’s investment strategy has risen sixfold, Hogrefe claims, surpassing the returns of Bitcoin itself. The algorithm’s accuracy is about 40% to 60% (or a little better than a coin toss), according to Hogrefe.